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Prelims1 Featherweight

Sean Soriano vs Chas Skelly

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi ·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Sean Soriano
Chas Skelly
35% 65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
14-9
Career record
Δ 26 pp
20-3
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Soriano: 24 sig / 0 TD · Skelly: 13 sig / 4 TD
Sean Soriano
Chas Skelly
28
Sig strikes landed
23
46
Sig strikes attempted
58
32
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
318s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
44%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sean Soriano

14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
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Blue corner
W1

Chas Skelly

"The Scrapper"
20-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
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