Main
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione vs Derrick Lewis
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Mitrione
Derrick Lewis
27%
73%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
13-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
30-13
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mitrione: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Lewis: 1 sig / 0 TD
Matt Mitrione
Derrick Lewis
15
Sig strikes landed
24
20
Sig strikes attempted
47
23
Total strikes landed
41
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—