Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Ben Rothwell
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Ben Rothwell
66%
34%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
48-19
Career record
Δ 2 pp
40-14
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Rothwell: 17 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Ben Rothwell
32
Sig strikes landed
27
52
Sig strikes attempted
57
36
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W1
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—