Main
Middleweight
Jacare Souza vs Gegard Mousasi
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
·Foxwoods Resort Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Gegard Mousasi
13%
87%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
27-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
43-6-2
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Souza: 32 sig / 4 TD ·
Mousasi: 26 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Gegard Mousasi
25
Sig strikes landed
26
53
Sig strikes attempted
63
36
Total strikes landed
41
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
237s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—