Back to UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
Prelims1 Welterweight

Ben Saunders vs Chris Heatherly

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos ·BOK Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ben Saunders
Chris Heatherly
58% 42%
Why
31
Age
Δ 5y
27
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Saunders: 4 sig / 0 TD · Heatherly: 4 sig / 1 TD
Ben Saunders
Chris Heatherly
31
Sig strikes landed
28
55
Sig strikes attempted
52
46
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ben Saunders

"Killa B"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
L UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner

Chris Heatherly

"Stump"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27