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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Aaron Phillips vs Matt Hobar

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos ·BOK Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Aaron Phillips
Matt Hobar
69% 31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
12-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Phillips: 38 sig / 0 TD · Hobar: 63 sig / 6 TD
Aaron Phillips
Matt Hobar
38
Sig strikes landed
27
75
Sig strikes attempted
64
50
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Aaron Phillips

"The Dragon"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
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Blue corner
L1

Matt Hobar

"The Crowbar"
9-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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