Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Alex Garcia
71%
29%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
27
Age
27
32-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-6
W3
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Garcia: 5 sig / 3 TD
Neil Magny
Alex Garcia
44
Sig strikes landed
31
107
Sig strikes attempted
70
63
Total strikes landed
37
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
107s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
W2
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—