Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chas Skelly
Tom Niinimaki
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
19-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-9-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Skelly: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Niinimaki: 1 sig / 0 TD
Chas Skelly
Tom Niinimaki
16
Sig strikes landed
26
40
Sig strikes attempted
49
47
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
231s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Niinimaki
"Stoneface"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—