Main
Middleweight
Francis Carmont vs Thales Leites
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
·BOK Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
Thales Leites
38%
62%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
25-13
Career record
Δ 11 pp
29-9
L2
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Carmont: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Leites: 18 sig / 0 TD
Francis Carmont
Thales Leites
14
Sig strikes landed
25
47
Sig strikes attempted
58
36
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
97s
Control time
230s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
25-13
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W3
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—