Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Clay Collard
77%
23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
23
Age
Δ 1y
22
W2
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Holloway: 124 sig / 0 TD ·
Collard: 70 sig / 1 TD
Max Holloway
Clay Collard
69
Sig strikes landed
51
144
Sig strikes attempted
117
75
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner
Clay Collard
"Cassius"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22