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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann vs Lauren Murphy

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux ·Cross Insurance Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Lauren Murphy
46% 54%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
McMann: 38 sig / 5 TD · Murphy: 48 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Lauren Murphy
24
Sig strikes landed
24
45
Sig strikes attempted
44
45
Total strikes landed
55
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
41%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sara McMann

13-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner

Lauren Murphy

"Lucky"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31