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Prelims1 Middleweight

Tom Watson vs Sam Alvey

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux ·Cross Insurance Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Tom Watson
Sam Alvey
34% 66%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Watson: 85 sig / 0 TD · Alvey: 82 sig / 0 TD
Tom Watson
Sam Alvey
46
Sig strikes landed
47
94
Sig strikes attempted
102
65
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Tom Watson

"Kong"
17-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
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L UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
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Blue corner

Sam Alvey

"Smile'N"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28