Prelims1
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga vs Zach Makovsky
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
·Cross Insurance Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Zach Makovsky
65%
35%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
24-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-8
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Formiga: 11 sig / 2 TD ·
Makovsky: 25 sig / 1 TD
Jussier Formiga
Zach Makovsky
21
Sig strikes landed
25
66
Sig strikes attempted
64
38
Total strikes landed
44
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
186s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W2
Zach Makovsky
"Fun Size"
21-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—