Main
Lightweight
Gray Maynard vs Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
·Cross Insurance Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Ross Pearson
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
13-8-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-17
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Maynard: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Pearson: 26 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
Ross Pearson
33
Sig strikes landed
47
101
Sig strikes attempted
117
43
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
45s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gray Maynard
13-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
L1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
20-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—