Main
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Ovince Saint Preux
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
·Cross Insurance Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Ovince Saint Preux
76%
24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
24-5
Career record
Δ 22 pp
28-18
W2
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Bader: 24 sig / 9 TD ·
Saint Preux: 24 sig / 2 TD
Ryan Bader
Ovince Saint Preux
17
Sig strikes landed
19
37
Sig strikes attempted
54
35
Total strikes landed
32
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
237s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
Blue corner
W4
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—