Main
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch vs Brad Tavares
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
·Cross Insurance Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Brad Tavares
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
21-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
21-14
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Boetsch: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Tavares: 24 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Brad Tavares
30
Sig strikes landed
43
70
Sig strikes attempted
97
43
Total strikes landed
62
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
Blue corner
L1
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—