Main
Featherweight
Thiago Tavares vs Robert Peralta
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
·Cross Insurance Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Robert Peralta
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
28
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
19-8
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tavares: 18 sig / 2 TD ·
Peralta: 0 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Robert Peralta
27
Sig strikes landed
34
64
Sig strikes attempted
73
41
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
157s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Tavares
22-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W2
Robert Peralta
"Problems"
19-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—