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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Nolan Ticman vs Frankie Saenz

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux ·Cross Insurance Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Nolan Ticman
Frankie Saenz
57% 43%
Why
26
Age
Δ 8y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ticman: 25 sig / 0 TD · Saenz: 67 sig / 5 TD
Nolan Ticman
Frankie Saenz
32
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
69
39
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
90s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Nolan Ticman

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Frankie Saenz

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34