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Main Welterweight

Seth Baczynski vs Alan Jouban

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux ·Cross Insurance Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Seth Baczynski
Alan Jouban
48% 52%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baczynski: 25 sig / 1 TD · Jouban: 25 sig / 0 TD
Seth Baczynski
Alan Jouban
35
Sig strikes landed
39
87
Sig strikes attempted
89
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
138s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Seth Baczynski

"The Polish Pistola"
20-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
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W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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L UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
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L UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
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W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
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Blue corner

Alan Jouban

"Brahma"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33