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Prelims1 Featherweight

Katsunori Kikuno vs Sam Sicilia

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Katsunori Kikuno
Sam Sicilia
69% 31%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
24-9-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-8
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kikuno: 32 sig / 1 TD · Sicilia: 36 sig / 0 TD
Katsunori Kikuno
Sam Sicilia
30
Sig strikes landed
23
65
Sig strikes attempted
58
50
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Katsunori Kikuno

24-9-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
W UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
Blue corner
W1

Sam Sicilia

16-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
L UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar