Back to UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Alex Caceres vs Masanori Kanehara

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Masanori Kanehara
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
L1
Current streak
—
10
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 24 sig / 0 TD · Kanehara: 32 sig / 2 TD
Alex Caceres
Masanori Kanehara
45
Sig strikes landed
30
96
Sig strikes attempted
71
61
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alex Caceres

"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
W UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
Blue corner

Masanori Kanehara

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32