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Main Women's Bantamweight

Miesha Tate vs Rin Nakai

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson ·Saitama Super Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Rin Nakai
39% 61%
Why
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tate: 55 sig / 1 TD · Nakai: 16 sig / 3 TD
Miesha Tate
Rin Nakai
30
Sig strikes landed
34
63
Sig strikes attempted
62
67
Total strikes landed
77
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Miesha Tate

"Cupcake"
21-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
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L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
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Blue corner

Rin Nakai

0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28