Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhang Lipeng
Brendan O'Reilly
83%
17%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lipeng: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
O'Reilly: 15 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Lipeng
Brendan O'Reilly
30
Sig strikes landed
17
64
Sig strikes attempted
42
57
Total strikes landed
37
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
235s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zhang Lipeng
"The Warrior"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway
—
Blue corner
Brendan O'Reilly
"Badger"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27