Prelims2
Lightweight
Akbarh Arreola vs Tiago dos Santos e Silva
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Akbarh Arreola
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
45%
55%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arreola: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
dos Santos e Silva: 62 sig / 0 TD
Akbarh Arreola
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
34
Sig strikes landed
36
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
117s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Akbarh Arreola
"El Caballero"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner
Tiago dos Santos e Silva
"Trator"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27