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Prelims2 Welterweight

Andreas Stahl vs Gilbert Burns

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown ·San Jose Civic Auditorium
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Andreas Stahl
Gilbert Burns
43% 57%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stahl: 41 sig / 0 TD · Burns: 44 sig / 2 TD
Andreas Stahl
Gilbert Burns
35
Sig strikes landed
39
77
Sig strikes attempted
79
49
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Andreas Stahl

"Real Steel"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28