Prelims1
Featherweight
Mike de la Torre vs Brian Ortega
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike de la Torre
Brian Ortega
39%
61%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 4y
23
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
de la Torre: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortega: 3 sig / 1 TD
Mike de la Torre
Brian Ortega
46
Sig strikes landed
52
124
Sig strikes attempted
112
63
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike de la Torre
"El Cucuy"
14-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
23