Prelims2
Women's Strawweight
Juliana Lima vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Juliana Lima
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
30%
70%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
32
Age
Δ 6y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lima: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Jedrzejczyk: 46 sig / 0 TD
Juliana Lima
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
36
Sig strikes landed
44
80
Sig strikes attempted
89
62
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Juliana Lima
"Ju Thai"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27