Prelims1
Welterweight
Hernani Perpetuo vs Tim Means
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Hernani Perpetuo
Tim Means
48%
52%
Why
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
18-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
33-18-1
L1
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perpetuo: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Means: 85 sig / 1 TD
Hernani Perpetuo
Tim Means
32
Sig strikes landed
40
79
Sig strikes attempted
91
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Hernani Perpetuo
18-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
L3
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—