Prelims1
Lightweight
Daron Cruickshank vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
Jorge Masvidal
31%
69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
19-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
36-17
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cruickshank: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Masvidal: 51 sig / 2 TD
Daron Cruickshank
Jorge Masvidal
32
Sig strikes landed
45
94
Sig strikes attempted
100
45
Total strikes landed
63
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
91s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—