Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Kyle Kingsbury vs Patrick Cummins
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kyle Kingsbury
Patrick Cummins
63%
37%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
11-7
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-7
L3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kingsbury: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummins: 73 sig / 10 TD
Kyle Kingsbury
Patrick Cummins
30
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
58
45
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kyle Kingsbury
"Kingsbu"
11-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W1
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—