Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
King Green
35%
65%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
22-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
36-17-1
L1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Thomson: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 59 sig / 0 TD
Josh Thomson
King Green
27
Sig strikes landed
46
73
Sig strikes attempted
90
45
Total strikes landed
63
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
169s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W3
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—