Main
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Johnson vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Johnson
Rogerio Nogueira
79%
21%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 8y
38
23-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-10
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Nogueira: 0 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Johnson
Rogerio Nogueira
29
Sig strikes landed
19
74
Sig strikes attempted
54
45
Total strikes landed
32
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
6s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W2
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
24-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—