Main
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Matt Brown
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
·San Jose Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Matt Brown
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
31-16
Career record
Δ 7 pp
27-19
W1
Current streak
W7
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Lawler: 80 sig / 2 TD ·
Brown: 82 sig / 2 TD
Robbie Lawler
Matt Brown
52
Sig strikes landed
59
113
Sig strikes attempted
142
71
Total strikes landed
67
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
W7
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—