Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ruan Potts
Anthony Hamilton
51%
49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
11-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Potts: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Hamilton: 60 sig / 5 TD
Ruan Potts
Anthony Hamilton
42
Sig strikes landed
32
144
Sig strikes attempted
51
48
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
50s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ruan Potts
"Fangzz"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Hamilton
"Freight Train"
15-10
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—