Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Wade
Cain Carrizosa
63%
37%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Wade: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Carrizosa: 0 sig / 0 TD
Chris Wade
Cain Carrizosa
38
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Wade
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Cain Carrizosa
"The Insane"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28