Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lorenz Larkin
Derek Brunson
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
18-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-10
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Larkin: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 12 sig / 4 TD
Lorenz Larkin
Derek Brunson
29
Sig strikes landed
39
73
Sig strikes attempted
89
37
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
35s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—