Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Danny Castillo
80%
20%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
27-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-10
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ferguson: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 23 sig / 2 TD
Tony Ferguson
Danny Castillo
45
Sig strikes landed
36
104
Sig strikes attempted
83
61
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
55s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
Blue corner
W1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—