Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lucas Martins
Alex White
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
26
Age
26
20-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
14-6
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Martins: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
White: 42 sig / 0 TD
Lucas Martins
Alex White
25
Sig strikes landed
23
64
Sig strikes attempted
59
34
Total strikes landed
23
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
81s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
20-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex White
"The Spartan"
14-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—