Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Lineker
Alptekin Ozkilic
93%
7%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
31-10
Career record
Δ 16 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lineker: 133 sig / 2 TD ·
Ozkilic: 88 sig / 1 TD
John Lineker
Alptekin Ozkilic
58
Sig strikes landed
40
133
Sig strikes attempted
114
73
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.90
Knockdowns
0.00
38s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
31-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
Blue corner
L1
Alptekin Ozkilic
"The Turkish Delight"
9-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—