Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
Pat Healy
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
33-15
Career record
Δ 10 pp
34-24
L1
Current streak
L3
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tibau: 44 sig / 4 TD ·
Healy: 54 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
Pat Healy
37
Sig strikes landed
34
107
Sig strikes attempted
96
59
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
L3
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
34-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—