Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Evan Dunham
69%
31%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
33
24-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-10-1
L1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barboza: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 10 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Evan Dunham
58
Sig strikes landed
50
133
Sig strikes attempted
130
64
Total strikes landed
67
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
13s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L2
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—