Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Jim Miller
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
37-17
Career record
Δ 1 pp
40-19
W3
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cerrone: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Miller: 30 sig / 1 TD
Donald Cerrone
Jim Miller
45
Sig strikes landed
31
89
Sig strikes attempted
79
41
Total strikes landed
33
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
32s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—