Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rick Story
Leonardo Mafra
61%
39%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
19-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-5
L1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Story: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Mafra: 11 sig / 0 TD
Rick Story
Leonardo Mafra
51
Sig strikes landed
38
119
Sig strikes attempted
79
72
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
232s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
L1
Leonardo Mafra
"Macarrao"
13-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—