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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Jessamyn Duke vs Leslie Smith

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller ·Revel Resort
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jessamyn Duke
Leslie Smith
55% 45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
66"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
3-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
10-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Duke: 16 sig / 0 TD · Smith: 36 sig / 0 TD
Jessamyn Duke
Leslie Smith
58
Sig strikes landed
60
132
Sig strikes attempted
142
70
Total strikes landed
85
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
76s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jessamyn Duke

"The Gun"
3-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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Blue corner
L1

Leslie Smith

"The Peacemaker"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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