Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cathal Pendred
Mike King
92%
8%
Why
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pendred: 11 sig / 3 TD ·
King: 38 sig / 1 TD
Cathal Pendred
Mike King
52
Sig strikes landed
42
108
Sig strikes attempted
102
70
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cathal Pendred
"The Punisher"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Mike King
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
31