Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tor Troeng
Trevor Smith
73%
27%
Why
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
16-8-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Troeng: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 42 sig / 2 TD
Tor Troeng
Trevor Smith
29
Sig strikes landed
26
53
Sig strikes attempted
51
52
Total strikes landed
47
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
274s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tor Troeng
"The Hammer"
16-8-1
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
Blue corner
L1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—