Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Cody Donovan vs Nikita Krylov
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cody Donovan
Nikita Krylov
11%
89%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
33
Age
Δ 11y
22
8-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
31-12
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Donovan: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Krylov: 42 sig / 0 TD
Cody Donovan
Nikita Krylov
21
Sig strikes landed
31
27
Sig strikes attempted
61
36
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cody Donovan
"Donnybrook"
8-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—