Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Holohan
Josh Sampo
72%
28%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
64"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Holohan: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Sampo: 3 sig / 0 TD
Paddy Holohan
Josh Sampo
37
Sig strikes landed
23
66
Sig strikes attempted
58
55
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paddy Holohan
"The Hooligan"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1
Josh Sampo
"The Gremlin"
11-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
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W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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