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Jake Matthews vs Dashon Johnson

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt ·Spark Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Dashon Johnson
80% 20%
Why
20
Age
Δ 6y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Matthews: 60 sig / 4 TD · Johnson: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Dashon Johnson
41
Sig strikes landed
29
83
Sig strikes attempted
62
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jake Matthews

"The Celtic Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
Blue corner

Dashon Johnson

"Flyboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26