Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Soa Palelei
Jared Rosholt
62%
38%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
23-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-4
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Palelei: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosholt: 43 sig / 1 TD
Soa Palelei
Jared Rosholt
21
Sig strikes landed
12
38
Sig strikes attempted
38
39
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Soa Palelei
"The Hulk"
23-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Jared Rosholt
15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—